People at all times was proper to think about the end of the world. Nearest apocalypse “appointed” on December 23, 2012
This day will end next cycle of the Mayan calendar, and the planets line up in the sky in a certain way …
Alexei Turchin, futurist, author of several books, examined all the known scenarios of natural and manmade disasters.
“2012″: – What can we expect from 2012? Maybe once again blow over?
Alexei Turchin – I think so. What does the Mayan calendar may have to the real risks of our time? Absolutely nothing. But as soon as the call date of the alleged accident, since the hysteria around it begins. Besides 2012 is another example – in 2029, when the fly past Earth asteroid Apophis. Collision with our planet is extremely improbable. Even if it happens on a global catastrophe is hardly worth talking about: the destruction will be within 100 km from the crash site, plus a minor air emissions. However, many have already put an equal sign between Apophis and the end of the world.
“2012″: – When we die, then by what – the asteroid, global warming, nuclear war? In this film the most popular scenarios.
Alexei Turchin – The risks just are not very large, and they do not lead to the extinction of all humanity. True, there is a hypothesis that is coming greenhouse catastrophe: the temperature of the planet will grow leaps and bounds – and not at 5 and 50 degrees and more, making life on Earth will perish. The author of the theory – the Russian biophysicist Alex Karnaukhov. But it is not universally accepted. As for the asteroid, the planetary catastrophe is possible in a collision with a body no less than 30-60 km in diameter. But the probability of encountering such a “guest” in this century is very small: somewhere 0.0001%. By the same means of monitoring asteroids are constantly improving.
But the nuclear accident is possible. And the scenario in which nuclear weapons have many options. One of them – use a very large hydrogen bombs with a shell of cobalt-59. In the explosion of a radioactive isotope is spread over the entire surface of the Earth, destroy all mankind. This bomb was called “The Doomsday Machine”.Weapon is to create yet no one has, but it is obvious that the stories were people ready to carry to the grave with all of humanity, to provide them the opportunity.Suffice it to mention Hitler. So, the scenario of “Doomsday Machine” is not excluded.
“Virus” from outer space
“2012″: – On the nuclear threat to mankind knows more than half a century. And what of the recent scientific developments could lead to global catastrophe? Here, for example, nanotechnology.
Alexei Turchin – There is no such threat as “gray goo.” Nanorobots capable of self-renewal, get out of control and begin to create their own copies from the surrounding matter. The most attractive environment for them is biomass – it also contains carbon, and energy that can be removed by oxidation. Calculations show that for two days nanorobots will be able to digest all the Earth’s biomass. Another option – nanotech weapons, the tiny robots that will attack people and introduce them to the poison, for example. If there is malicious intent such weapons also lead to global catastrophe. And it will be like in the rhyme: “The school stands, and no man.”
“2012″: – Another fiction taught to be afraid of robots that will forget who their master …
Alexei Turchin – Artificial Intelligence (AI) has not yet been created, but I’m sure that in the twenty-first century is going to happen. Research groups in different countries have come close to it. The paradox is that the emergence of more intelligent beings in itself would be a disaster for humans. Any extinct species therefore extinct, that there was next to a more efficient predator. AI system could indefinitely learner, his power – to grow like an avalanche. It will create their own mechanisms of influence on the world, for it is not difficult to take control of any computer system, including state management system and the Internet. And although it seems that the AI is easy to control, in fact, this problem is almost unrealizable. He will overcome any defense and easily seize power on Earth. The most terrible option – the AI begins to implement some kind of problem in which the safety of mankind nothing is said.Person simply will not appear in the system of its values.
Artificial intelligence may also claim to us from space, through signals sent by alien civilizations. There is an international program of SETI, it is engaged in a regular listening to radio signals, decoding them. It is not excluded that they will send us a description of a computer program AI. We foolishly launched it, and he captured the Earth ipolzuya our civilization in order to send copies of the universe – like a computer virus.
The most likely time for a global catastrophe – the period from 2020 to 2040 years. It was on this segment will get the technology over which man is capable of losing control. Of course, not necessarily all end end of the world – people can survive, but to degrade or become dependent.